January 27, 2017 Update, the First Week

The Polls leading up to the Inauguration

Two polls out on January 17, 2017 — one by CNN and ORC and another by The Washington Post and ABC News  — found that just 40 percent of Americans approved of Mr. Trump’s performance heading into his Inauguration on Friday. NBC News and The Wall Street Journal, in a poll from mid-December, reported 54 percent of adults saying that they are either uncertain (25 percent) or pessimistic and worried (29 percent) about how Trump will perform during his presidency, compared with 45 percent with either an optimistic and confident view (22 percent) or a satisfied and hopeful view (23 percent); a significantly worse outlook than Americans expressed after the elections of both Barack Obama and George W. Bush.

He is the first modern President whose popularity and confidence numbers have gone down between the Election and Inauguration. This indicates that his non-plurality Election Day “victory”—winning 41.6% of the votes cast, could represent his high-water mark at least in the near-term. The unprecedented vitriol and absence of comity before the Election has, if anything, gotten worse.

It’s not a Poll, but I just discovered two awesome Rap videos on YouTube from the campaign season in 2016, causing me to seriously re-evaluate my low opinion of Rap: YG & Nipsey Hussle "FDT (Fuck Donald Trump)" (WSHH Exclusive - Official Music Video), and Barack Obama Rap Song Dissing Donald Trump. I’d need a whole different blog to address all the social media associated with the divisive and unprecedented 2016 Presidential campaign. (Sounds like a future Political Science, Sociology, or Media Studies Masters or PhD thesis topic.)

The First Week

It’s been a rocky start. Same Trump we saw during the entire campaign season, save a couple disciplined “New” Trump days leading up to the Election. The same outrageous tweets in the middle of the night. The same stubborn denial and deliberate dissembling—‘My Inauguration crowd was one and a half million, huge, the biggest ever’; ‘The media created a fake conflict between me and the Intelligence community’; ’This is the first time a meeting like this—of business leaders with a President in the White House—has happened’; ‘I won the popular vote, save for millions of fraudulent votes for Clinton’; ‘We’re going to war with the News Media’; and on and on. His administration has been rightfully and mercilessly hammered right out of the gate: Trump's Press Secretary Tries For A Reset, But Goes On To Lament Negative Narrative, and Donald Trump dogged by insecurity over popular vote, media coverage.

Trump’s inaugural Speech was classic Trump; a divisive, delusional shout out to his supporters, roundly denounced by the mainstream non-Fox News media and press, prominent Republicans, and thoughtful conservative opinion leaders, for example George Will: Donald Trump Inaugural Address Dreadful.

Trump and his enablers are demonstrating that Trump’s disdain for reality or even facts, on display during the campaign, will continue in the White House: Sales of George Orwell's 1984 surge after Kellyanne Conway's 'alternative facts', and Lies, Damned Lies, and Amazing New Euphemisms for Lying. Some are even drawing parallels between the Trump Administration’s approach and views on the mainstream non-Fox News Media, expressed by Trump and his enablers, with the role of Media in present day Russia or China: ‘We’re Not Supposed to Be State Television’: CNN’s Gloria Borger Fires Back at Steve Bannon.

The anticipated chaos within the Trump Administration has already started: Mattis, Pompeo stunned by CIA 'black sites' report, Trump administration asks top State Department officials to leave, and Trump pressured Park Service to find proof for his claims about inauguration crowd.

The growing Resistance is already inside the walls of the Castle as career public servants set up media accounts outside of official channels: There’s Now an Unofficial National Parks Account Tweeting Against President Trump, and NASA scientists join resistance with rogue Twitter account. Open defiance from official channels has also begun: Internet Suspects U.S. Department of Defense Made Veiled Reference About Trump In Tweet, and NASA just made all the scientific research it funds available for free. Talk about ‘A house divided…’.

Resistance is already having an effect, as researchers inside and outside of the Federal government scramble to archive and preserve scientific data before Trump appointees can scrub government-funded unpleasant truths. Internal opposition and Media attention prompted the new Administration to back down from at least one outrageous directive: Trump officials suspend plan to delete EPA climate web pages.

The massive Women’s March, the day after (and dwarfing) the Inauguration, a growing Not My President movement, and promises of sustained resistance to the nascent Trump Administration, this is just the beginning. Just as the election of Barack Hussein Obama in 2008 not only re-energized the Republican Party resulting in the purging of Republican moderates and Nation-wide Republican gains in mid-term elections in 2010 and 2014 and Republican majorities in the Congress, but also emboldened formerly small and mostly below the radar racist White Nationalist (recently re-branded the “Alt-Right”) and xenophobic groups and undercurrents, setting the stage for Trump’s rise last year and non-plurality election in 2016, we will now see a massive resistance to Trump’s Administration and Republican over-reach, a re-energized Democratic Party uniting women, minorities and other out-groups, workers, environmentalist, true conservatives, independents, and progressives on the Left. Secular Humanism will thrive just as Right Wing ideology and Christian Fundamentalism gained traction with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Newt Gingrich with the election of Bill Clinton in 1992. He has not only united America, he has united the World, in opposition to him: Protesters rally worldwide in solidarity with Washington march, Trump sparks protests, celebrations worldwide. Trump touted the few celebrations, failing to mention these were from Russia and other non-democratic countries Trump has said positive things about.

Donald John Trump’s boast that he would unite the Nation and Make America Great Again will come to pass. By setting the stage for a Secular Humanist and Democratic Party renaissance, he has unleashed forces which will move America forward, not again, but keep it on the relentless path of increasing social justice, diversity, and inclusive.

Trump has already begun to create international discord and raised concerns about his admiration for and possible connections with Russia’s Vladimir Putin: Mexico’s President Cancels Meeting With Trump Over Wall, Donald Trump Could Be Starting a New Cold War With China, British Prime Minister Theresa May warns Trump he cannot trust Putin, and Journalist: Russia's Interference Is An 'Assault On The Western Liberal Order'

Concerns about Trump’s mental fitness to be President were raised during the campaign season, for example: Neuroscientist explains Trump has a dangerous mental disorder,  Psychiatric Professors wonder if Trump is mentally ill, and Is Donald Trump a Sociopath?. But now, only days into his term, more voices are raising the issue of his mental health: Temperament Tantrum, Insider: Donald Trump, exasperated by protesters, yells “Don’t they know I’m the f—ing president?”. and Keith Olbermann Takes On Trump’s Sanity In Epic Rant (VIDEO).

The Bottom Line

Trump’s first week in Office has been breathtakingly unprecedented; the confirmation of the worst fears of the mainstream News Media, most pundits, and his many detractors during the campaign and the eleven weeks between His non-plurality Election and Inauguration. The only silver lining that I can see is this: a failed Presidency is a real possibility.

When he brought in Kellyanne Conway as campaign manager in mid-August, 2016, she struggled to right his faltering campaign. It took over two months, but she somehow reached him, a few days before the Election. My bet is that she figured out the only thing Trump fears; failure. She told him that he faced a humiliating defeat, at the hands of a woman, if he did not reign in his excesses. He was only able to do it for a few days. He obviously hated it—mocking the advice out loud at his rallies: ‘Steady Donald’, ‘Stay cool Donald’, ‘Don’t blow it Donald’, but he listened.

If the people around him candidly tell him that he faces a failed Presidency if he does not start sounding and acting like The President of the United States, he may listen. That’s a big if, because it presupposes that at least some of his enablers can see outside of the alternative reality bubble of Trump World and would have the courage to speak truth to their delusional Leader. And, obviously, even if The Message is delivered, Trump, suffering from Narcissistic Personality Disorder, may be unable, or even worse, incapable, of hearing or heeding it.

Original Post on eve of the Inauguration

Full Disclosure

First, full disclosure. I’m a 66-year-old second-generation Italian-American and lifetime Liberal Democrat. I’ve voted, in every election starting in 1972, for Democrats at every level, Federal, State, and Local.  The only Republican I ever voted for was Maryland Senator Charles Mathias Jr., a liberal Republican, in 1980, when he ran for re-election against a conservative Democratic State Senator.

I gleefully listened to the gavel to gavel coverage of the Senate Watergate Committee—known officially as the Select Committee on Presidential Campaign Activities—hearings on NPR Radio and watched televised portions in 1973-1974 for over a year, then the House Judiciary Committee impeachment hearings, the votes for three articles to impeach Richard Nixon in late July, 1974, the drama over the Watergate Tapes and unanimous Supreme Court order to release the tapes, the airing of the “Smoking Gun” tape, and Nixon’s resignation on August 8, in the face of certain Impeachment in the House and Conviction in the Senate. When Gerald Ford was defeated by Jimmy Carter in 1976, I stayed up for hours to hear Ford’s wife Betty, drunk, slur through her husband’s concession, he being too devastated to deliver it. As she slurred and he wept, I grabbed the TV and mocked, “You’re out of a Job, you idiot.” (During the campaign, Ford had said he believed the voters would say: “Gerry, you’ve done a good job”.) I thought President Ronald Reagan, 1981-1989, the Republican Saint, was a brain-dead moron. I cheered when Bill Clinton defeated President George Bush in a landslide in 1992 and again when he defeated Bob Dole in a landslide in 1996. I cheered and cried when Barack Obama handily defeated John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.

The 2016 Republican Primaries

I was entertained watching the Republican primary season. It went on and on, unlike typical modern election cycles. Trump was clearly unfit to serve as President and never garnered support from more than 35% of the primary voters. It seemed inconceivable that he would be nominated, and the prospect of a contentious brokered Convention with Trump being denied and blowing up the Republican Party was delicious. But as the primary session dragged on, despite continued outrageous missteps and scandalous revelations around Trump, The Donald kept his 30 to 35% support as other candidates dropped out of the race. Even as mainstream Republicans, alarmed at the possibility of a disastrous Trump general election campaign, vocally denounced and came out against him, his support held and then started to grow. Even after he locked up the nomination, most pundits, talking heads, and prominent mainstream Republicans, were confident that he was unelectable and would lose big against Hillary Clinton. I thought so too.

The 2016 General Election Campaign

Throughout the campaign, National tracking polls and individual State polls repeatedly showed Clinton defeating Trump handily. Trump consistently polled around 35%. Only breaking 40% briefly after the Republican Convention for a week in late July and again for a week in mid-September. Clinton’s polling fluctuated in the low 40s percent, except briefly right after the Republican Convention to just under 40%. The only obvious warning signs were: (1) no matter what outrageous things Trump said or did, his numbers never went below 36%, and (2) Clinton’s numbers only went above 45% in mid to late October and never exceeded 46.2%. It seemed that the difference between Trump’s floor of support (35%) and Clinton’s ceiling (45%), just 10%, was too close to be comfortable with. Especially considering the growing attacks on Trump by establishment Republicans, trailing poll numbers, and negative but accurate media reports, the fact that their average daily polling difference was less than 5% was also disturbing.

In fairness, Hillary Clinton was a flawed and weak candidate. Her protracted and Clintonian response to her unending years long E-mail server scandal, and her campaign, displayed the same level of hubris that cost her the nomination against Barack Obama in 2008 and almost cost her the nomination in 2016 against Senator Bernie Sanders. She also got some bad breaks, like the Russian government’s active interference in the election and FBI Director James Comey’s decisions to announce a new investigation into her e-mails days before the election and to sit on the FBI’s investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

The Pivot That Will Never Come

During the Republican primaries, Trump apologists repeatedly excused his outrages and excesses. Trump insiders assured nervous Republican leaders that Trump would pivot and act more Presidential during the general election campaign. As the campaign went on, and Trump’s tweets, rallies, and comments became even more outrageous, Trump enablers assured anyone who would listen that he would surely pivot once he won the election. He did somehow manage to contain himself briefly in the final days before the voters went to the polls.

Fueled in no small part by an emotional racist Whitewash and rage over the election and re-election of the first African-American President, Barack Obama, voters elected a profoundly emotionally flawed individual. Well, by almost three million votes, they actually voted to elect Hillary Clinton. Only 103,000 votes spread across Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—the three closest States—gave Trump an Electoral College win of 306 to 232. If these States had gone for Clinton, she would have won, 278 to 260. Of course had that happened, Trump would have called for insurrection and his supporters would have burned the Country to the ground.

In the weeks since the election, there has been no pivot. If anything, Trump has been even more arrogant, petty, and impetuous. All of his paid enablers and many of his supporters continue to hope for the presidential pivot that will never come. Now we face the very real and likely possibility that the man we have elevated to the highest office in the land, not to mention leader of the most powerful nation in the world, will continue to be the profoundly flawed person he has always been. America will learn that no matter how emotionally satisfying, electing a delusional, petty, thin-skinned Narcissistic emotional cripple is a very bad and dangerous idea. 

Trump is Emotionally Disturbed

Donald Trump is not a populist, entertaining, awesome, unconventional, or a genius. He is emotionally disturbed. Many successful people are narcissistic, self-centered and self-serving, sometimes exaggerate, embellish, or even lie, manipulate others, deceive, self-aggrandize, bully, exploit people in sexual and/or other ways, are amoral or even immoral, eccentric or peculiar, and/or generally unpleasant human beings.  Politicians and Billionaire Business people don’t have a monopoly on these faults, but they do tend to exhibit them more often than typical people. As with all human faults or vices, people can exhibit them but still be highly functional and successful. It is mostly a question of degree. When one or several of these characteristics begins to interfere with one’s life, they approach and can cross over into dysfunction and mental illness. Several famous and successful people have been known to suffer from mental illness, most notably perhaps: Howard Hughes (OCD) and Abraham Lincoln (severe Clinical Depression).

My list of problematic traits exhibited by many successful people is, of course, not random. Even Trump supporters will immediately recognize that he exhibits some of these most of the time and all of them over time. In any given 24-hour period, he displays many of these. What makes this a clear sign of serious mental dysfunction is that Trump doesn’t just use these things for effect—as his enablers and apologists would have us believe, he is compelled to exhibit them. Donald Trump suffers from Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD). (See Mayo Clinic: Narcissistic Personality Disorder Symptoms and DSM-5.)

I’m not the first person to notice this. Though no practicing Clinical Psychologist or Psychiatrist can say this out loud, for ethical reasons, more than a few have noted the characteristics of the disorder in the context of Trump’s actions.

What this means is that Trump has no real values or beliefs but these:

1)      He is not just the center of the Universe, he is all that really matters. His needs, wants, opinions, and actions are all that matter. To say that he demonstrates severe hubris, in both the contemporary and original Greek meaning of the word, is not too strong.

2)      His version of reality is not just the best, or most intuitively obviously correct, it is the only reality that he can perceive or even conceive of. Anything that challenges his reality, even incontrovertible facts, has no effect on him. Denial sustains his world view.

3)      He has no empathy or concern for others. People, like everything else in his environment, are simply an instrumentality, a means to his ends.

4)      He is always right. Anyone who does not support his view of reality is wrong, whether an aide, colleague, the entire National Intelligence community, a two-term President leaving the office he is about to assume, a military general, or any other expert.

5)      He will say or do anything that furthers his perceived immediate self-interest, with no regard for conventions, rules, precedents, cultural norms, or even reality constraints.

6)      He has no need to be consistent or even rational. If he changes his mind about something, whatever he said or professed to believe earlier is simply discarded.

7)      No slight or dissent, no matter how seemingly insignificant, can go unchallenged. He is compelled to attack anyone or anything that does not support his delusional high opinion of his own awesomeness.

What We Can Expect

Most modern Presidents, once in office, have been awed and humbled by the history of their predecessors and the White House, and almost immediately realized the awesome burdens and responsibilities of the presidency. They grew wiser, aged, and their hair turned grey. The only recent President who didn’t appear to age and opined that being President was a piece of cake was Ronald Reagan, who may not have ever realized that he was actually the President of the United States, not just an actor playing the greatest role in history. Even George W. Bush, never accused or even suspected of being an intelligent or serious guy, grew in office.

For someone suffering from NPD, being elected President of the United States has got to be the ultimate achievement and self-validation. Trump will not grow in office. If anything, he will become more emboldened, capricious, erratic and dangerous.

The best-case scenario is that his administration will be marked by constant chaos, continued rallies that will remind students of history of an unpleasant time in Germany in the 1930s, peevish tweets in the middle of the night, and perhaps a few interesting financial and/or personal scandals. He and the Republican majorities in the House and Senate will slash taxes on corporations and the Rich, roll back environmental, labor, and consumer protection regulations and laws, retard social justice progress for a time, and put one or two Right Wing ideologues on the Supreme Court.

The likely-case scenario is that in addition to the best-case, we’ll have a wave of tribalism and nativism, contentious and worsening race relations, and anti-immigrant and anti-trade policies, with a possible trade war with China and/or our NAFTA partners.

With a President Trump, there really is no way to even imagine the worst-case scenario. His affinity for authoritarian leaders, cavalier comments about abandoning NATO or other allies, and reckless comments about the proliferation or use of nuclear weapons, are enough to keep one awake late into the night.

What We Can Hope For

It’s never a good idea to end on an apocalyptic note. So even better than my best-case scenario, what can we hope for?

One possibility: as Trump’s unfitness to serve becomes undeniable, Independents, and eventually enough Republicans, abandon him, and Republicans in the House and Senate remove him from office before he can do much damage. (This gives us President Mike Pence, not a great prospect but at least he’s just a Right-Wing ideologue and not suffering from a serious mental illness.)

Another possibility: just like during the Republican primaries and general election, Trump proves me and all his detractors and haters wrong. He dramatically changes and grows in office, becomes not only functional and emotionally healthy, but a decent human being. He serves two productive terms in office; creating high paying jobs for everyone, a thriving economy, cheap awesome universal health care insurance, balanced budgets, and massive trade surpluses, and he defeats global terrorism and achieves world peace. In short, he makes America Great Again and does for the Republican Party what Franklin D. Roosevelt did for generations of Democrats.