The Pandemic
What started as a trickle of cases on March 1 has now exploded into a nation-wide pandemic that has infected over 600,000 and killed over 25,000 Americans. America is number 1 in both confirmed cases and deaths. And we are now, at best, in the middle of the first wave of the outbreak. Once it ends sometime this summer, eventual widespread testing will show that over a million Americans were infected and over 60,000 Americans will have died.
The Economy
Blue State governors, joined by a few Red State ones, responded in the face of inaction and delusional happy talk from Trump by ordering businesses closed and their residents to stay home beginning in mid-March. Trump was eventually forced to issue a nation-wide advisory to do the same. The Stock Market has already crashed once. Unemployment and declines in GPD are expected to reach levels that rival the Great Depression.
Trump’s Feckless and Incompetent Response
Despite Trump’s attempts to revise the documented history of his inept response, an independent press and radio and TV media continue to hammer him. An excellent and perhaps definitive recounting of what has happened is provided by the New York Times.
He Could Have Seen What Was Coming: Behind Trump’s Failure on the Virus
“An examination reveals the president was warned about the potential for a pandemic but that internal divisions, lack of planning and his faith in his own instincts led to a halting response…
Unfolding as it did in the wake of his impeachment by the House and in the midst of his Senate trial, Mr. Trump’s response was colored by his suspicion of and disdain for what he viewed as the “Deep State” — the very people in his government whose expertise and long experience might have guided him more quickly toward steps that would slow the virus, and likely save lives…
The shortcomings of Mr. Trump’s performance have played out with remarkable transparency as part of his daily effort to dominate television screens and the national conversation.
But dozens of interviews with current and former officials and a review of emails and other records revealed many previously unreported details and a fuller picture of the roots and extent of his halting response as the deadly virus spread…
There were key turning points along the way, opportunities for Mr. Trump to get ahead of the virus rather than just chase it. There were internal debates that presented him with stark choices, and moments when he could have chosen to ask deeper questions and learn more. How he handled them may shape his re-election campaign. They will certainly shape his legacy…
The chaotic culture of the Trump White House contributed to the crisis. A lack of planning and a failure to execute, combined with the president’s focus on the news cycle and his preference for following his gut rather than the data cost time, and perhaps lives…”
One of Trump’s recurring delusions is that the Nation can abandon social distancing soon. Now he’s creating a new distraction by asserting that he, not governors, has the sole power to order an end to the social distancing measures that are working and have limited the extent of the pandemic here. He has no such power; governors ordered the measures and only governors can end them. It’s tempting to assume that Trump has created this fake ‘controversy’ so that he can later argue that the economic disaster would have been much less severe if mostly Blue State governors hadn’t refused his ‘order’ to end their social distancing measures. Sadly, it’s much more likely that he is just being his malignant narcissist self. Of course, after the fact, he will surely blame governors.
Here’s just one sample of the outcry Trump’s assertion has resulted in.
Trump says his ‘authority is total.’ Constitutional experts have ‘no idea’ where he got that.
“When President Trump was asked during Monday’s news briefing what authority he has to reopen the country, he didn’t hesitate to answer. ‘I have the ultimate authority,’ the president responded, cutting off the reporter who was speaking…
The local leaders, Trump said, ‘can’t do anything without the approval of the president of the United States.’…
While the president appears convinced he is the only one empowered to make the critical determination, his extraordinary assertions of authority over the states astounded legal scholars, leaving them wondering, as they have before about Trump’s broad claims, where on earth he got them…
Not only does the power Trump asserted have no basis in reality, experts said, but it’s also completely antithetical to the Constitution, the concept of federalism and separation of powers — whether during a time of emergency or not…
It’s the most basic tenet of federalism, [Josh Blackman, a constitutional law professor] said: ‘The federal government can’t give orders to governors. That’s a very simple fact of life.’…
Blackman said he had ‘no idea’ what law or legal precedent Trump believed granted him such sweeping authority, because none do. He said there is a long history of presidents using ‘creative arguments’ to assert executive authority during wartime or emergencies — but … there is not a long history of presidents getting away with nearly unfettered authority. There is no ‘emergency clause’ in the Constitution for presidential power, he said.”…
The Bottom Line
Trump’s incredible luck has finally run out. The brief and small “bump” in his overall approval numbers quickly vanished. By election day this November, the Nation will still be in a deep recession if not a second Depression. The Stock Market will be down, unemployment will be over 10 percent, and GPD will have significantly declined. Recent polling is already showing a dramatic decline in approval and increase in disapproval of Trump's handling of the pandemic.
Net Approval for Trump’s Handling of Coronavirus Dips Underwater
“For the first time in Morning Consult polling, more voters disapprove than approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States.
An April 10-12 survey of 1,987 registered voters found 49 percent disapprove and 45 percent approve of the president’s COVID-19 response, marking a drop of 5 percentage points in his net approval rating, the share who approve minus those who disapprove, in the course of a week and an 18-point drop since a mid-March peak in evaluations of his handling of the pandemic.
The slide in net approval since that March 17-20 survey has been driven by a souring among Democratic voters (down 24 points) and independents (down 17 points), while the vast majority of Republicans have continued to rate Trump well…
In the weeks since Trump announced national social distancing guidelines on March 16, the United States has seen a surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths that brought the roaring economy during the president’s tenure to a standstill. Critics have repeatedly accused Trump of not doing enough to stop the virus early on and to help state and local governments respond as it spread. Meanwhile, some of the president’s allies are pressing to reopen much of the country in order to stimulate the economy.”
