My Analysis
Here's the voter breakdown, as I see it:
The Republican Party is a Minority Party, now about 45% of likely voters. They break down as follows:
35% of voters are Traditional, mostly fiscally Conservative, empowered, rational, and Rich White People (and a smattering of non-White Rich People, voting their selfish short-term vested self-interest.
10% of voters are Xenophobic and/or Racist--motivated by fear and hate toward minority out-groups, and faceless Elites, presumably indifferent to their concerns, and voting accordingly.
The Democratic Party is the Majority Party, now about 55% of likely voters. We break down as follows:
35% of voters are Liberal and/or Progressive empowered, rational, and Rich White People (and a smattering of non-White Rich People, voting their log-term vested self-interest.
15% of voters are struggling Middle-Class and Working-Class People, voting their selfish short-term vested self-interest.
5% of voters are dis-empowered, mostly Poor Non-Whites, sometimes voting their hopes for a better future under the Democrats, and sometimes their fears for an even more difficult life under the Republicans.
Here is The Problem, in a nut shell:
Republicans who are in that 35%, vote in every Election. They have the time, and the motivation, and they understand that the Republicans deliver, consistently, and in real-time.
Republicans who are in that 15% usually vote in off-year Elections, and almost always vote in National Elections, for obvious reasons.
Democrats who are in that 35%, vote in off-year Elections, most of the time, and in National Elections, almost all the time.
Democrats who are in that 15%, rarely vote in off-year Elections, and in National Elections, usually vote, for the Democrats unless they are recently laid-off, out of work, or otherwise pissed off, in which case they either don't vote, or worse, they vote for Republicans to punish the Democrats for not helping them soon enough.
Democrats who are in that 5%, never vote in off-year elections, and in National Elections, only vote (Democratic) when the existential threat of Republicans is so clear and present, that they somehow get it together to vote, unless they forget to, or if the candidate is one of theirs ethnically, and will presumably help them.
So-called Independent voters are a myth. They are mostly Democratic voters in that 20% of voters who don't consistently vote, holding their loyalty to, and votes for, the Party hostage to the Party's willingness to explicitly promise help, which rarely if ever comes, once in Office.
This is why Democrats do poorly in low-turnout off-year and National elections. And why a pro-Democratic Wave Election only happens when something really bad, like Nixon's Watergate or a severe recession happens, close to the election.
The political Parties have widely different constituencies, with different motives and interests. The Republican Party delivers, quickly, ruthlessly, and all the time: When in the majority, they slash taxes (mostly for the Filthy Rich and Corporations, but a little for small businesses and the not Filthy Rich; they slash environmental, job safety, pro-labor, and other regulations, resulting in obscene corporate profits, increased wage and wealth inequality, discrimination, and real risks to the common good, but also generating a few, mostly low-paying, one or more hundreds of thousands of jobs; and they screw all the people that 10% of voters hate and/or fear--minorities, immigrants, LGBT people, non-traditional women, Liberals, and the so-called Elites. The Democrats deliver, inconsistently, ineffectively, and with mostly half-measures and incremental changes around the edges, fearing the wrath of Republicans and Independents, and at a snail's pace, if at all.
The recent 0 for 4 Special Elections demonstrate this. The Democrats got much closer to winning in these safe Republican Districts, but close doesn't count. Winning is everything in politics, especially given that the Republicans have no sympathy for Government and are unconstrained by any values but greed and short-term self-interest without regard for the Nation or the common good. They have no shame and no problem governing without popular support. Whether they buy, steal, or fairly win a majority, they govern as if they had overwhelming popular support. They know from their mass-marketing friends that most non-Republican voters are passive and easily swayed--to either not vote or even vote against their self-interest if made fearful or hateful enough.
The Bottom Line
The 2018 mid-term Election is not going to be a cake walk. Republicans will spend and say whatever it takes to cling to power until the 2020 National Election. They will disenfranchise as many likely Democratic voters as they can. They will saturate the airwaves with negative ads to suppress the vote and scare and/or inflame the passions of "Independent" voters. They will play for time, another two years to be exact. In 2020, when, after four years of Republican raping and pillaging, presumably, their reign will end at the hands of the voters.
We are in a war for the future of our Nation and Planet. The Republicans have been waging and winning this war, first at the Local and State level, systematically outspending and outwitting a hapless and clueless National Democratic Party for over two decades. buying State Houses and Governorships on the cheap. Starting with the typically low-turnout 2010 mid-term Election, helped by a small but significant racist vote in response to President Obama's election in 2008, after securing majority control at the State level far beyond their Minority Party status, the Republicans gerrymandered much of the Nation's Congressional Districts and took over the House. Four years later, again helped by a small but significant racist vote in response to President Obama's re-election in 2012, they took over the Senate in the typically low-turnout 2014 mid-term Election. In 2016, Republicans maintained control of the Congress. Riding a racist Whitelash, Donald Trump lost the Presidential election by 3,000,000 votes and still "won" with an Electoral College that over-represents low population Red[neck] States plus a narrow win in a couple Blue States Hillary Clinton and the National Democratic Party forgot to campaign in, assuming Trump could not get elected.
To defeat the Republicans in 2018--and with Democratic majorities in the House and Senate remove Trump from Office--the Democratic Party must do more than resist Trump and the Republican Congress. The Party must find a way to motivate not just the True Believer Democratic 35% of likely voters. We must motivate the 15% of likely voters who are Middle- or Working-Class, and only vote, if at all or for Democrats, when they believe we will deliver, and the 5% of voters who are Poor and rarely vote, whatever Democrats say they will do for them.
The alternative is to lose another off-year Election, by smaller margins for sure, but only flipping a few House seats, reducing the Republican majority, and failing to take back the Senate. In that event, we and the Nation will suffer two more years of insanity and international embarrassment, as Trump holds onto power with a 35% approval rating, and have to hope that after four years in power, the voters will overwhelmingly elect Democrats, and throw Republicans out of the Congress and White House.
My Awesome Rant
Just click on the link and enjoy:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/i9b2s69tgiz048v/20170621%20113543%200%20for%204%20-%20The%20Explanation%20Take%202.m4a?dl=0
